[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE WARNING EXISTS FOR A PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 6-
HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W TO 26N41W
TO 22N50W THEN WEAKENING FRONT TO 18N68W. N OF 27N BETWEEN 43W
AND 52W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT IN MERGING
NE AND NW SWELL. GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 36 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO
4N40W IN THE ATLANTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.  THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 9N83W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AT 9N76W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OR THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF.  IT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO EASTERN
MEXICO WITH COOL AIR BANKING UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER WITH UP TO STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS OCCURRING.  LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
OF A FEW MILES OR LESS WITH FOG...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N88W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN-FACING TERRAIN OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS.
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS PRESENT OVER THE ISLAND.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS ALONG WITH THE WESTERN END OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 1.65 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND 1.44 IN ST THOMAS
VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES.

A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF STRONG BREEZE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB LOW NORTH OF OUR
AREA AT 34N43W TO 31N40W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N64W JUST NORTH
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  WEST OF 56W...SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  EAST OF 56W...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.

A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N41W SOUTHWARD TO 8N42W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY
THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N63W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1029 MB HIGH CENTER...ACROSS
BERMUDA...THROUGH 31N74W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W.  A WEAK 1018
MB HIGH CENTER IS CENTERED AT 22N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CWL


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