[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
34N28W. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 35W. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE WEAKENING...AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS FEATURE IS FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 34N27W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 25N19W 18N22W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO  ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

A GALE WARNING EXISTS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N38W TO 25N40W TO
21N55W...THEN A SHEAR LINE TO 19N67W. N OF 29N BETWEEN 43W AND
48W NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT IN MERGING NE AND NW
SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT TO 52W N OF 26N W TO NW WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT IN MERGING NE AND NW SWELL. N OF SHEAR
LINE TO 24N BETWEEN 55W TO 67W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT. WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT N OF 26N SW TO S WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF BOUNDARY TO 68W EXCEPT N OF
26N W OF 60W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
FROM 10N TO 17N E OF 43W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE
SWELL.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 23N57W THEN
DISSIPATING TO 21N67W. WITHIN 520 NM W OF FRONT N OF 25N NW TO N
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING NE AND NW SWELL.
ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT TO 25N E OF 67W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT. WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. REMAINDER AREA E OF FRONT N OF LINE FROM 26N50W TO
13N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N18W TO 6N30W 7N44W...CURVING INTO NORTHWESTERN SURINAME
NEAR 5N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 33W...AND FROM 9N TO
12N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.
IT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...AND IT
REACHES THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N62W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1028 MB HIGH CENTER...ACROSS
BERMUDA...THROUGH 30N73W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR
29N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W...TO 25N94W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS WITH
FOG...ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...
KBBF...KBQX. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGUL...KGBK...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMYT...AND
KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED
AT KEIR AND KSPR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 4 MILES
AT THE LOWEST WITH FOG AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA FROM THE ANGLETON-LAKE
JACKSON AREA TOWARD THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE
BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...INCLUDING AROUND THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. THE COMPARATIVELY LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF 2
TO 3 MILES AND LESS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG ARE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ON THE LOWEST END...AND LIGHT
RAIN ARE IN THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL PLAINS...INTO ALABAMA ALSO.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE TO THE WEST OF PANAMA CITY IN FLORIDA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS MARIANNA FLORIDA. A VISIBILITY
OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN TALLAHASSEE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST...COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 26N97W. N
OF FRONT N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N48W TO 27N52W...TO AN AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N61W...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
13N62W...TOWARD THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N
TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W...MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.85 IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
HISPANIOLA EASTWARD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
HISPANIOLA WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF
COLOMBIA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. THE SECOND
AREA CONSISTS OF...FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N48W TO 27N52W...TO AN AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N61W...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
13N62W...TOWARD THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N48W 23N52W AND 22N56W. THE COLD
FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 22N56W TO 22N63W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 140 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM 21N TO 27N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND
63W...MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 27N45W 24N50W 18N63W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N62W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 1028 MB HIGH CENTER...ACROSS BERMUDA...THROUGH
30N73W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N81W...INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W...TO 25N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN
68W AND 75W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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