[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051809 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 33N27W OR ABOUT 300 MILES S OF THE
AZORES IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF THE 31N AND COULD
ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 18W-27W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 10N24W 8N36W 8N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 14W-
46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NE YUCATAN TO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THEN NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF BERMUDA COVERING THE E GULF OF
MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT EAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
E TEXAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE N GULF COAST COUPLED
WITH THE DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM
W FLORIDA TO TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL THEN MEANDER TO NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO SAT MONRING LINGERING THROUGH MON. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
TO OVER CENTRAL PANAMA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 19N63W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
ACROSS S PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N67W TO 17N71W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO ACROSS
THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 63W-66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-69W. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N66W 15N75W TO
16N82W. PUERTO RICO HAS REPORTED ALMOST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THESE SAME TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INLAND
OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF LINE FROM 9N80W TO THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL
STRENGTHEN INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 19N63W
THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS S PUERTO RICO INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N67W TO 17N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER IN
THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-69W AND COVERING MOST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH N OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS TO 25N58W. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 22N57W ALONG
19N63W THEN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS S PUERTO RICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
E OF 66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 66W-69W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS WEDGE BETWEEN THE FRONT TO THE W AND THE
SUBTROPICAL LOW 996 MB LOW OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 33N28W WITH A
1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER
AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 9N TO 32W IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N22W TO 25N16W
INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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