[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR
10N14W...TO 10N16W AND 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO
7N21W 7N30W 9N40W 8N46W AND 6N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 24W...FROM 10N TO
11N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND
45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN
30W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST/WESTERN
LOUISIANA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH
OF 25N97W 26N92W 23N82W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE 25N97W 23N82W LINE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 42 HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT 30N92W 26N97W. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OR SO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N59W TO 23N63W AND 18N63W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 27N56W 24N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 24N60W 19N63W...THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE...TO 17N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 15N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 20N62W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.46 FOR ST.
THOMAS...0.68 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.17 IN

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA EASTWARD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT...AFTER THE FIRST 12 HOURS...
FROM NORTHWESTERLY...TO NORTHERLY...AND TO NORTHEASTERLY...AND
CONTINUE AS NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WITH A NORTHERN BAHAMAS-TO-YUCATAN
PENINSULA RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE ENTIRE
TIME OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA...AND IT COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
EAST OF 70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEYOND EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N80W...
ACROSS PANAMA FROM 7N81W BEYOND 9N83W...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO
THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 06 HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N27W IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE 33N27W CENTER TO 23N30W 16N35W 11N44W. A 999 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N27W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT SPIRALS
AWAY FROM THE 999 MB LOW CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N20W TO
26N21W AND 21N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 35W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO
23N63W AND 18N63W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N52W 27N56W 24N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG
24N60W 19N63W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND
58W. SCATTERED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...20N62W...
24N56W 28N52W BEYOND 32N48W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N43W AND 23N49W. THE
RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE 999 MB LOW CENTER AND THE 32N52W 24N60W
COLD FRONT.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 1023 MB HIGH CENTER TO 30N70W 27N75W...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. THIS
RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N52W 24N60W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 14 TO 21 FEET. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF
44W...EXCEPT SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO
THE EAST OF 40W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N47W TO 24N54W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT TO 60W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12
FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N50W TO 20N45W TO
15N35W. ANOTHER PART OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...INCLUDING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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