[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 9N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 9N18W TO 7N23W TO 7N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 14W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N73W PRODUCING 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
FROM E TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING THICK SEA
FOG. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
23N. A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
SURFACE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASED LOW CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA AT 5N74W TO BEYOND W COSTA RICA AT 9N85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. DIFFLUENT
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE SHOWERS TO MOVE
W TO 78W IN 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
THE E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N73W. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N58W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT
N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 998 MB STORM LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N28W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW TO A TRIPLE POINT AT 33N21W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 28N20W TO 21N27W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
E FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N13W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY AROUND THE LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT N
OF 30N. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N42W TO
2N42W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATALNTIC SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. LIKEWISE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N29W SUPPORTING
THE E ATLANTIC LOW. EXPECT W ATLANTIC FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WHILE THE E ATLANTIC LOW REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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