[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 08N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N17W TO 06N24W TO 06N30W TO 04N36W TO 04N40W TO
02N43W. SCATTERER MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN
17W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N
BETWEEN 23W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 17N101W. GIVEN THE
STABLE FLOW ALOFT...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN FAIRLY
STABLE AS WELL UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-
15 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR W OF 80W ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAIR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CONVECTION NOTED IS ACROSS THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 07N77W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT ALSO
REMAINS DRY AND STABLE ALOFT. A FEW SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 15N W OF 72W TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N67W SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N74W. THIS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT TRADE WIND SURFACE WINDS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 23N67W SW TO 18N74W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE WITH LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 38N68W TO
30N62W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N65W
TO 26N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 26N65W SW
TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 55W-63W IN THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MAXIMUM
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 62W-66W EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 36N77W TO A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ARE FORECAST TO MERGE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF 24N72W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROVIDES INFLUENCE N OF 15N BETWEEN
30W-55W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 40N40W SOUTHWARD TO
32N43W TO 15N48W. FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 34N29W THAT SUPPORTS A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N25W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 27N14W. MOST
LOWER TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 210 NM
NE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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