[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N18W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N18W TO 10N18W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT.
A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ENCOMPASSING THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N54W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 15N56W TO 12N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 40W-60W ENCOMPASSING THIS
WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 56W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N81W TO 10N82W
MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ENCOMPASSING THIS
WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-85W
INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 78W83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 16N18W ALONG 9N28W 9N42W TO 11N49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 14W-22W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 42W-49W...AND
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SW MEXICO COVERS MOST OF THE W GULF WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S GEORGIA COVERS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS COVERING THE THE SE GULF
AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
E OF 83W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ARE MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF
92W. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM A RECENT DISSIPATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 92W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM
21N93W TO TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 17N92W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-95W. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS
ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE N EXTENSION OF
THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL EARLY SUN PASSING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN
NIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON THROUGH WED.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE AND
THROUGH THE NE WATERS ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 76W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE OF THE ABOVE UPPER LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF 80W. THESE
FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE MONA
PASSAGE EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO THE ABC ISLANDS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN THE W
COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER HAITI. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ACROSS PANAMA TO OVER COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 77W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
ISLANDS. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE NW
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PASSAGE ON SUN. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND
MON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE CARIBBEAN SUN AND PASS OVER THE ISLAND TUE AND WED.
THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVER THE FAR W ATLC S
OF 30N W OF 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-77W
ANCHORED NEAR 27N69W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 60W-78W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 33N61W ALONG 30N64W TO 29N67W
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 28N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 32N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
33N46W. THE N EXTENSION OF THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
WILL PASS W THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS S OF 22N FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO ON SUN AND MON AND FROM PUERTO RICO
THROUGH HISPANIOLA TUE AND WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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