[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N45W 16N44W 11N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES. AFTER THAT TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N59W 17N58W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 54W AND 58W...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W.

A BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA-TO JAMAICA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N77W...
20N78W 15N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
BAHAMAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

AN INLAND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W INCLUDING ACROSS
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 8N22W...TO 9N31W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND
28W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE
BAHAMAS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND
86W. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 22N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...96W/97W FROM 23N TO 26N. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 22N97W CENTER COVERS THE AREAS THAT ARE FROM
16N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTERIOR MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 23N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN
87W AND 92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMYT...KDLP...KCRH...KHQI...KGVX WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL
CEILING ALSO. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE FOUND AT THE
STATIONS...KBQX AND KBBF. ICAO STATION KEMK IS REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REPORTED FROM PALACIOS TO
THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PARTS OF THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MIDDLE LEVEL AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL STATIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO
THE EAST OF 92.5W FOR THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 70W TO
THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
18N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REACHES HISPANIOLA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HONDURAS TO
BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
75W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 71W AND 74W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 72W TO
THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
18N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REACHES HISPANIOLA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA...ACROSS THE WINDWARD CHANNEL...AND EASTWARD TO
HISPANIOLA. A BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA-TO JAMAICA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
24N77W...20N78W 15N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO
28N68W 25N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 73W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N41W 20N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N44W...THROUGH 31N50W 30N55W 29N64W 27N70W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE
EAST OF 70W...EXCEPT FOR THE 32N36W 28N38W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 44W AND
50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net