[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 17N
BETWEEN 33W AND 41W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N54W
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
52W AND 57W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT 27/2045 UTC HAS DISSIPATED SINCE THEN.
REMNANT SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHERN
HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W.
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND
77W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND
86W...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...PARTS OF EASTERN
HONDURAS...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS
STRONG ALSO COVERS SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO 11N26W 11N36W 13N48W 10N57W 9N62W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND
20W...AND IN SENEGAL TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...COVERING PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
AFFECTING SOME OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 26N79W 23N81W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N83W 25N82W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST
OF 88W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE COASTAL STATIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W...WITH NO
APPARENT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS CONNECTED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 18N48W 15N58W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 80W ALONG
11N/12N...ALONG 11N/12N BEYOND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
82W AND 85W. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24
HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W.

HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA STILL FINDS ITSEL TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT 27/2045 UTC HAS DISSIPATED SINCE THEN.
REMNANT SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHERN
HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO
30N64W AND 28N71W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO
31N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N75W 29N77W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
50W AND 76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N34W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N38W AND 25N53W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N48W
15N58W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 66W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N59W AND 27N69W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO
THE EAST OF 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 36 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND
45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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