[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 272344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH OVER THIS AREA...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND THE END OF THE
WEEK OR WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AFTER THAT TIME WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


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