[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 260832
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

WHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE
RIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING
INLAND.  THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.  SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND.  THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 19.8N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  26/1800Z 20.4N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  27/0600Z 21.1N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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