[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W MOVING SLOWLY W-NW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE
COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N31W TO
9N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT...
AND SSMI IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 17N64W TO
7N65W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 63W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 67W-70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
13N17W TO 11N23W TO 12N37W TO 8N44W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N59W. A SMALL 1011 MB
LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 12N46W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 45W-50W. BESIDES THE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 15W-
20W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND
OVER S MEXICO AND EXTENDS S OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 94W.
FURTHER N...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 90W-93W. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO
OVER THE N FLORIDA ALONG 30N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
NE MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 82W-
90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE W-NW WITH
CONVECTION. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIP TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 64W/65W. SEE ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
85W. ELSEWHERE...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO
COSTA RICA ALONG 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N73W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE W OVER CUBA. ALSO EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM 32N73W TO 30N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1031 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE AZORES AT 44N26W
PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 20N-30N E OF 50W WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT TO DIP TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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