[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N24W TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N28W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES AREA ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
17N59W TO 8N63W MOVING W 15 KT. 12 UTC RAOB FROM BARBADOS
SUGGESTED WAVE AXIS HAD PASSED TO THEIR WEST BEFORE 12 UTC. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 58W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS OF 15 UTC...EXTENDING FROM
24N90W TO 12N91W. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED
ON THE WAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN YUCATAN NEAR 18N91W. THIS WAVE
AND LOW MAY BE UPGRADED TO A SPECIAL FEATURE ON SUBSEQUENT
ISSUANCES OF THE TWD...PENDING INCREASES IN THE GENESIS
PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE ON SSMI IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW PRES AREA OVER
BELIZE...YUCATAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN GUATEMALA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
16N17W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N28W ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE
NOTED ABOVE...TO 12N33W TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W
TO 7N50W TO 10N60W. THE SMALL LOW CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ EARLIER
HAS DISSIPATED. ASIDE FORM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIONW AS
NOTED FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 45W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90
NM OF 13N37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 15 UTC...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WAS RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
FROM 24N90W TO 12N91W. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 1010 MB LOW
ANALYZED ON THE WAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN YUCATAN NEAR 18N91W.
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRES. SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE AT 10-15 KT OVER THE
GULF NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN 90
NM OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 29N90W TO
27N95W TO 23N97W. ADDITIONAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WERE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 87W-94W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WAS FANNING
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE LOW POSSIBLY
EMERGING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE
REFER TO THE GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THIS LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE MOVED
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND ALSO FOCUSED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST
OF PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF A MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SWEEPING
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITHIN IN AREA
OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN
EMBEDDED SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
PRESENTLY TRADE WIND CUMULUS DOT THE ISLAND WITH MODERATE TRADE
WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE
AZORES NEAR 44N27W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 15N-
30N E OF 50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATED WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGHOUT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
OVER THE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 35W. NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
PRODUCING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W AND
PRODUCE CONVECTION OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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