[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS
AROUND THE WAVE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS
0.84 IN KINGSTON.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W...FROM HAITI TOWARD
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W TO THE SOUTH OF
27N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND IT WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED FOR THE 21/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL/MAURITANIA
NEAR 16N16W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 16N26W...13N30W
10N38W 8N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
8N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N TO THE EAST OF 19W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH
OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE SOUTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 89W.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL
AIR STATION...HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI
NAVAL AIR STATION. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...HEAVY RAIN AND
LOW VISIBILITY ARE IN PALACIOS TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO THE
PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT IN HOUSTON. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS IN
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE
SKY AT PATTERSON AND GRAND ISLE IN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN
AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RECENT RAIN COVER THE
WESTERN PART OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVERS MOBILE ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WITH THUNDER AND PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND IN
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN FORT MYERS. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS
0.84 IN KINGSTON.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W...FROM HAITI TOWARD
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES
AS OF 21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN... ARE 0.84 IN KINGSTON
JAMAICA...0.42 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.41 IN SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO...AND 0.27 IN MERIDA MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 14N TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BETWEEN 78W AND 91W IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE ISLA DE PINOS OF CUBA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 18N67W
19N64W BEYOND 21N60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS CLOUD LINE
RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
15N TO THE WEST OF 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
17N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS
0.84 IN KINGSTON.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W...FROM HAITI TOWARD
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL
BE IN AN AREA OF PREDOMINANTLY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW/EASTERLY WIND
FLOW BECAUSE OF ONE INVERTED TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR ABOUT THE
FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 220 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N53W...TO THE CENTER...
TO 22N60W TO 21N66W 21N70W. A SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
21N70W TO 27N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 32N54W 22N64W 30N77W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 18N67W 19N64W 21N60W
24N56W 32N50W. THIS CLOUD LINE RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
EASTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 11N TO 17N...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 12N TO 20N. THE TROUGH IS
THE REMNANT OF ERIN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N28W TO 32N38W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N48W
28N63W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W INCLUDING
THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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