[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 181433
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

ERIN CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER
SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED...
PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 30 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
HOSTILE TO REGENERATION...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
PERSISTENTLY STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO
24 HOURS...OR SOONER.

ERIN IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 260/9...WITHIN THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS SHOWS THIS MOTION OR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD
MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 20.5N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 20.5N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 20.5N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 20.5N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z 20.5N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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