[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 29.1W AT 16/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 295 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 28W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N89W THROUGH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
NEAR 20N89W TO NEAR 15N89W. SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW NEAR 10
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 14N-26N TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 81W-88W AS WELL AS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED WHILE IT REMAINS OVER LAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N47W
TO 12N47W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 23N60W TO
12N60W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 57W-
62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA RESUMING W OF T.S. ERIN
NEAR 12N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N35W 13N44W TO 11N48W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 8N54W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 41W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT
THE AREA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF WATERS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 28N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW
IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W DRAWING MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO OVER THE GULF. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING THEN
INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE SUN AND INLAND LATE TUE OVER SW
LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E PANAMA TO HISPANIOLA. THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA AND W COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 75W-80W. SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 65W DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN OVER THE S PENINSULA
OF HAITI. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WHEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE NEXT
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND SAT AND SUN
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 30N
W OF 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 30N
W OF 76W INCLUDING S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N64W TO 24N67W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N56W AND EXTENDING INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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