[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N35W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W TO 10N36W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N60W TO
11N61W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE TO
THE E OF DRY STABLE AIR WITH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING THE WAVE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 60W-63W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N77W. AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 72W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER DAKAR SENEGAL AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N21W 13N32W
THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N36W TO 8N42W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W 7N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6M58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 10N-16N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 22W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 34W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS E
ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO GEORGIA COVERING THE NW GULF. A BROAD
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 23N96W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO JUST E OF
COATZACOALCOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
22N W OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO...S OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-
86W...AND S OF 24N BETWEEN 86W-91W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA
TO OVER THE GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE E GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THU GRADUALLY APPROACHING
THE NE GULF COAST SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 19N W OF 80W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 15N73W. A
BROAD 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES ARE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. SEE ABOVE.
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN AND
POSSIBLY MERGE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN MOVE
NW OF THE AREA. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER E CARIBBEAN SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ISLAND IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WHEN THE CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE ISLAND LATER
TODAY THROUGH SAT. AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE IN
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 62W TO OVER N FLORIDA/
GEORGIA AND ANCHORED NEAR 32N71W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 54W-62W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-
66W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N44W
AND A 1024 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. GOES R INDICATES AN AREA OF
DENSE SAHARAN DUST N OF 20N E OF 30W WITH A MODERATE SWATH
WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 23N30W TO 14N5047W. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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