[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N18W TO 13N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND COINCIDES WITH
A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 13W-
20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 14W-
18W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N41W TO 9N40W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION AND IS
RESULTING IN ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
11N24W TO 9N35W TO 7N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N41W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
AT 8N60W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE EMERGING OFF THE WEST AFRICA COAST ALONG 19W...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 29W-32W...AND FROM 7N-
12N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW
TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE...FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N92W. THIS IS THE MAJOR WEATHER
PRODUCER IN THE GULF. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 88W-93W...AND
WITHIN 180 NM INLAND OF THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS. EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF
NICARAGUA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W. MORE IMPORTANTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N63W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 62W. EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE QUICKLY W AND BE OVER E CUBA IN 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXPECT MORE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATER. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20N AND 30N. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
IS LOCATED GENERALLY N OF 10N E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE
NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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