[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N37W 15N36W 9N35W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
10N TO 22N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W TO THE SOUTH OF 25N...FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
MORE RELATED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W
TO 14N20W 11N29W 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W TO 9N55W
AND 8N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND
37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N88W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF
92W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE 24N88W
CYCLONIC CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N94W 23N93W 18N93W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N60W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 43W AND 67W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 15N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
53W AND 67W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...PASSING THROUGH
PANAMA TO THE EAST OF 80W...INTO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W...BEYOND
9N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N75W AND
9N74W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND
81W.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N68W TO 28N73W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W...ACROSS JAMAICA...
TO 17N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA VIA THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE
IS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
COVERED BY A RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...ENDING WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD...GIVING
WAY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST STARTS WITH
HISPANIOLA IN A RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL START
BY BEING IN A RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
HISPANIOLA WILL END UP BEING IN AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 16N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 70W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N36W TO 27N42W AND 19N49W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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