[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 23N35W TO
12N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. THE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS OVERTAKING
THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DRY SAHARAN AIR PRECEDES THE WAVE WITHIN 400 NM
AS SEEN ON GOES R IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 24N81W ACROSS CUBA
TO NEAR 14N81W MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS PRODUCING
THE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W ALONG 11N25W TO 7N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-12N E OF 19W TO THE
COAST OF W AFRICA...FROM 6N9N BETWEEN 20W-28W...AND WITHIN 120
NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER TEXAS GIVING THE GULF NE
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM 28N92W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N91W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 23N TO OVER
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-93W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 84W INCLUDING W CUBA AND S
FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT THEN INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
MEXICO SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EXTENDS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 80W INCLUDING W CUBA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W
ANCHORED OVER THE GULF VENEZUELA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 70W-79W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. AN UPPER LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N56W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N62W ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO 10N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA
NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W-70W INCLUDING
THE ABC ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE IN THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND S HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
COVERS HISPANIOLA. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THE ISLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 29N W OF 65W. THE UPPER LOW IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 29N W OF
70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
W OF 76W TO OVER CUBA AND S FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N57W TO 25N63W SUPPORTING A
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N59W TO 28N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-
70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE E TO W ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS SUN AND MON. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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