[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 22N30W TO
11N30W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS TRAILING
THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH DRY SAHARAN AIR PRECEDING THE WAVE AS SEEN ON GOES R
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N77W ACROSS CUBA
TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N78W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER
CUBA IS MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER PANAMA IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AT
14N17W TO 12N25W TO 9N30W TO 8N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N39W TO 8N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH AT 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 11W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 16W-
33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W
TO 25N89W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W TO
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER E TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N92W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER E TEXAS AND THE NW GULF.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE W TO THE SW GULF WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM THE
BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W FROM E CUBA TO PANAMA. A 1010 MB LOW
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 64W-70W. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77W ENHANCING THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER S...A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA THROUGH PANAMA PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 72W-85W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL TO A SURFACE
TROUGH AND MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY HAITI IS EXPERIENCING AIRMASS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT MORE
DIURNAL CONVECTION TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N58W TO 30N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 52W-62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROUGH. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N24W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. GOES R SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
SAHARAN AIR N OF 10N E OF 55W. IN THE TROPICS A 1010 MB LOW IS E
OF TRINIDAD NEAR 11N56W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THIS LOW TO BE OVER W CUBA IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N52W. EXPECT THIS LOW TO BE AT 17N57W IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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