[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
22N24W TO 13N25W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS TRAILING THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH DRY SAHARAN AIR PRECEDING THE
WAVE AS SEEN ON GOES R IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSICIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS S OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
21N69W TO THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AT
16N16W TO 12N28W TO 11N35W TO 8N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N38W TO 6N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH AT 8N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 16W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N85W TO W
CUBA AT 23N82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER E TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A
1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N63W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 63W-65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 65W. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W MAKING THE
THUNDERSTORM HIGH CLOUDS MOVE S OVER CUBA...AND MOVE N OVER
HISPANIOLA. FURTHER S...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA
THROUGH PANAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N
BETWEEN 72W-85W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
LOW TO FILL TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY HAITI IS EXPERIENCING AIRMASS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT MORE
DIURNAL CONVECTION TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N62W TO 26N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 53W-65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N31W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. GOES R SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
SAHARAN AIR N OF 22N E OF 22W AND N OF 12N BETWEEN 22W-45W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA TO PRODUCE ADDITION
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE W
WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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