[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
19N54W 14N56W 10N56W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W
AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...APPROACHING BARBADOS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 8N TO
16N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 14N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
15N17W TO 10N25W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N33W TO
7N39W 11N46W 14N49W AND 15N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN SENEGAL FROM 14N TO 16N...AND FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 25W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 9N26W 7N34W 6N43W 11N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...ACROSS FLORIDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N73W
TO 30N80W...TO A FLORIDA 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W AND 28N90W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N76W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...
TO 25N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LINE 29N92W 22N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
FLORIDA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF 31N83W 26N80W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY-TO-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW
CROSSES INTO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AS IT MOVES AROUND A
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGHS THAT COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS
NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BLOWING DUST HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT STATIONS
IN NORTHERN MEXICO...ADJACENT TO THE BORDER OF TEXAS...DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. MCALLEN TEXAS IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD
CEILING. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS IN FALFURRIAS
AND ALICE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND TOWERING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN
AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER
COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA INTO THE NEARBY FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT LEAST FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA TO
TALLAHASSEE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDER ARE IN PERRY FLORIDA...AND IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AREA. THE FORT MYERS AREA STILL HAS SOME LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N69W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 22N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W
EVENTUALLY TO 14N75W AND 15N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CUBA AND COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...DEVELOPING AND DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL JAMAICA...AND IN HISPANIOLA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W
AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN
75W AND 79W...AND IN COASTAL PANAMA NEAR 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N69W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 22N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W
EVENTUALLY TO 14N75W AND 15N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CUBA AND COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...DEVELOPING AND DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL JAMAICA...AND IN HISPANIOLA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W
AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
COVERED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD...GIVING WAY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA
FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE COVERED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM
A TROUGH FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N50W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N49W AND 27N48W. THIS TROUGH
IS ON TOP OF THE 19N54W 14N56W 10N56W TROPICAL WAVE AND

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 26N TO 36N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 28N61W 25N63W 23N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 38N37W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 50W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 47W
AND 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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