[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N80W IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ATLC COAST MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...THIS AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FALLS WITHIN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING E OF 73W AND W OF 81W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS MOVED OFF THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD AND IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 78W-
82W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N27W TO 20N27W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS INTERSECTION NEAR 16N27W. SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA
OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST...CONVECTION IS CONFINED S OF 13N AND
IS LARGELY MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL WINDS BETWEEN 22W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N94W TO 24N93W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK AREA OF GLOBAL MODEL
INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING AND RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG 94W
MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WHILE
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARD
THE MEXICO COASTS OF 25N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
18N16W TO 16N27W TO 11N29W TO 07N43W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N43W TO 09N50W TO 06N54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N25W TO 05N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS NEAR 32N98W AND IS PROVIDING THE
GULF WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES IT REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE WITH MOISTURE NOTED
GENERALLY S OF 25N. AT 03/0300 UTC A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S
OF 24N ALONG 93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW
GULF S OF 25N. THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PRIMARILY W OF 80W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 28N86W. A FEW SHOWER ARE OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH E OF 83W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING W
OF 90W IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 20N83W THAT IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS EVENING N OF 18N W OF 77W. FARTHER SOUTH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 80W-
86W...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD N OF 16N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 75W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
E OF 65W...AND ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 68W.
OTHERWISE...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD
REACHING 74W AS OF 03/0500 UTC.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY EARLIER AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS ARRIVED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE CENTERED OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
78W-82W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N55W AND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH
OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGING...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT. THE
AIR LAYER HAS PROGRESSED TO 74W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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