[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
22N25W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N26W TO 11N26W. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE MOVE W TO 17N30W IN 24 HOURS WITH THE WAVE.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W
TO S MEXICO NEAR 16N93W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 88W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 93W-96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N26W 10N30W
07N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N43W TO 08N50W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 25W-
29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 29W-
41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTH GULF
STATES FROM S GEORGIA AT 33N82W TO S MISSISSIPPI AT 32N91W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER S MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF
DORIAN IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE THE E COAST OF FLORIDA PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT THE
FLORIDA LOW TO MOVE NNE TO 31N78W. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE
TO MOVE W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA ... JAMAICA... AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF HISPANIOLA. FURTHER S... A 1010 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N83W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 81W-84W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE.
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W. ANOTHER
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N33W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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