[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
20W...TO 1S21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1S21W TO
4S25W AND 5S31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN
1W AND 3W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 10W AND
12W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 39W AND
40W...AND FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO
5N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS. PRECIPITATION
IN TEXAS IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATER.

THE WIND FLOW SPLIT IN DIRECTIONS NEAR 26N86W
STARTING AT 28/1715 UTC. PART OF THE WIND FLOW MOVED
ACROSS FLORIDA AS A RIDGE. THE OTHER PART OF THE
WIND FLOW WAS NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WIND FLOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THAT INCLUDES CUBA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 21N97W 22N92W 28N82W.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COASTAL
PLAINS BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
SOME STATIONS HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA NORTHEASTWARD.
A VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG IS BEING
REPORTED IN THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA.
VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING
OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOUISIANA
GULF COAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA BETWEEN
LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA WESTWARD...AND FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA.
FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE OBSERVED
TO THE SOUTH OF SARASOTA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ICAO STATIONS
KGVX AND KGBK. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KHQI AND KGUL.
SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT
ICAO STATION KIPN. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 37N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH
32N58W TO 24N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE....TO
15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 40N59W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...PASSING THROUGH
32N59W TO 31N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
THE COLD FRONT TO 27N59W AND 25N62W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 24N64W 27N58W...TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE
WEST OF 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W
AND 82W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N64W 22N66W 19N66W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 24N
BETWEEN 64W AND 71W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO 15N76W...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 74W
IN COLOMBIA...AND BEYOND 84W INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA TO THE NORTHWEST OF 3N78W 7N73W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N40W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1005 MB SURFACE MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N40W. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE CENTER...PASSING
THROUGH 32N27W TO 31N26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N49W.
A SECOND 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
24N35W.

UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N61W
15N62W 21N36W 22N30W 23N21W...BEYOND 23N16W
AT THE COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET IN THE AREA THAT
IS BOUNDED BY 31N70W 8N55W 10N38W 31N45W 31N70W.
THE 24-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES A 31N48W 25N55W
SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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