[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W TO 2N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N16W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 3S32W...TO 1S46W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 8N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS. PRECIPITATION
IN TEXAS IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATER.

THE WIND FLOW SPLITS IN DIRECTIONS NEAR 26N84W.
PART OF THE WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO A RIDGE
THAT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA. THE OTHER PART OF THE
WIND FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THAT COVERS FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS...COVERING THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. SOME OF
THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOLLOWING THE PATTERN
OF DEVELOPING...GROWING AND DISSIPATING...AND THEN
DEVELOPING AGAIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST AREA TO PORT LAVACA. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF LOUISIANA. THE LATEST VISIBILITY IN LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA IS 1.25 MILES WITH A VERTICAL VISIBILITY
OF 700 FEET. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLY REMNANT PRECIPITATION COVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLY REMNANT PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
AS YOU GO EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD AND FROM
THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA TO PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH
OF PUNTA GORDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ICAO STATIONS
KSPR AND KEIR. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE OBSERVED AT THE
ICAO STATION KMYT. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 37N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH
32N60W TO 26N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE....TO
15N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 39N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N59W TO 31N59W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO
27N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N64W 28N57W...TO THE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N56W TO 28N54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN
65W AND 80W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N65W 19N67W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 24N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM PUERTO RICO TO 15N76W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 8N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA
RICA...BEYOND 9N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 37N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH
32N60W TO 26N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE....TO
15N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 39N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N59W TO 31N59W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO
27N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N64W 28N57W...TO THE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N56W TO 28N54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN
65W AND 80W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N65W 19N67W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 24N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 37N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
A 1007 MB SURFACE MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
37N40W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N27W TO 31N26W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N52W.
A SECOND 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
24N35W.

UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N60W
17N50W 21N35W 23N24W...BEYOND 20N16W AT THE
COAST OF MAURITANIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. EXPECT ALSO WIND SPEEDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N35W 22N50W 25N65W. THE 30-HOUR
FORECAST INDICATES A 31N49W 25N57W SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN
180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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