[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0955 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N10W TO 1N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 1N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG
EQ20W EQ30W 1S40W TO 2S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 17W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8S-3N BETWEEN 31W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE GULF
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
40N70W. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
OF 10-15 KT N OF 22N. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS IS GENERATING
NUMEROUS HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM OFF THE TEXAS COASTLINE. IN THE SOUTHERN GULF...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N92W 18N93W THEN INLAND TO 16N93W. NO
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REPORTED/OBSERVED ASSOCIATED TO
THIS TROUGH. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE FRONT INLAND WILL
LIKELY EXTEND A TROUGH INTO THE N GULF THUS ENHANCING
RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS CROSSING LA HISPANIOLA
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING
FAIR SURFACE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A
FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. A FEW PATCHES OF
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 83W-87W. A LARGE AREA OF RAINSHOWERS CONTINUES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THIS MOISTURE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IN THE SE CARIBBEAN.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT SPREADS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 40N70W. A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST WITH AXIS NEAR 62W
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH TAIL
TRANSITIONS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 30N62W TO
26N64W. THE SAME UPPER LEVEL NARROW ELONGATED TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N58W TO 26N56W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY LINKED TO
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A HIGH N OF THE BRAZILIAN COAST
NEAR 7N39W. FARTHER NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 37N40W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 36N39W. A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THAT LOW EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 30N26W TO 25N26W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
TROUGH AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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