[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271656
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 1W-3W...FROM 4N-
5N BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC
REGION ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE N
GULF COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM 25N98W OVER TAMPICO TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN
THROUGH TUE. WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE N GULF N OF 26N ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 85W ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 18N71W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W INCLUDING SW HAITI
AND JAMAICA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N64W TO 28N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N64W TO BEYOND 32N62W. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR
W ATLC W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE
ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXTENDING FROM 24N71W ALONG 21N70W TO THE
MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N67W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN
90 NM W OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 36N37W WITH A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N25W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 24N31W TO 22N42W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM AFRICA ALONG 6N/7N TO SOUTH AMERICA. THIS UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 50W-61W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE BREEZE THROUGH TUE BECOMING E-SE MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFT E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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