[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N13W...TO 4N14W AND 2N17W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 2N17W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...
TO 1N35W...TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE
EAST OF 10W TO THE SOUTH OF 5N4W 5N7W 2N10W...
TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN
30W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
14N103W 19N106W 22N110W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO AND ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE 32N81W 29N79W 26N79W MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N91W 26N89W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE
NORTH OF 25N97W 24N90W 23N83W AT THE COAST OF
CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N
TO THE EAST OF 90W.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE GULF COAST SOUTHWARD.
CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES AT 12000 FEET OR LOWER
ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST TO BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. PATTERSON
MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA
IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING OF 200 FEET.
FAIR SKIES AT 12000 FEET OR LOWER/SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE REST OF
LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND FROM
SARASOTA SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE REST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SARASOTA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF
1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATION KMYT. CLEAR
SKIES/FAIR SKIES AT 12000 FEET OR LOWER ARE
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 18N51W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 14N63W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY TO
12N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST
OF 68W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AND
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS
NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND IT
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT
IS AROUND THE 18N51W 14N63W 12N75W TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH
AMERICA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N60W 13N70W 12N78W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N
TO 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N81W IN PANAMA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 76W AND 77W...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
7N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...
AND WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N84W ALONG
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N81W NEAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO 29N79W AND 26N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N74W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 25N81W JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
70W AND 78W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO
19N60W...JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 32N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
A 30N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 18N51W...LEADING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
14N63W AND 12N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N35W
TO 26N38W AND 23N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 26W
AND 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N26W 27N29W TO 20N40W AND 20N70W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N18W TO 28N21W...TO A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N33W...TO 10N49W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N34W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. EXPECT
ALSO WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST
OF 55W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N75W
27N78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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