[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N33W 2N43W 2S48W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 13W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 38W-45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE BASIN. IT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM THE NE CORNER OF FLORIDA AT 31N81W TO THE SW GULF
ALONG 25N87W 21N91W 17N92W...AS OF 0300 UTC. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 250 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. A
FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WEST OF
THE AXIS REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE SW GULF. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM A CENTER SOUTH OF MEXICO WITH AXIS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE
RIDGING IS ALSO BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING NOTED OVER THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE SE GULF ALSO
SPREADS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 61W-68W. GUADELOUPE HAS
REPORTED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF MAINLY 20 KT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N80W TO 29N81W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BOTH THE WEST...CENTRAL...AND EVEN THE EASTERN
ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036
MB HIGH NEAR 41N49W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 34N59W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM NEAR 21N69W TO
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY BE
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N61W TO 23N63W. NO
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...A NARROW
UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W TO 22N54W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 32N36W TO 29N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO THE
SOUTH FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 37W-46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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