[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W AND 4N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N24W TO 3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 7W AND 12W...
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W...FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 3S BETWEEN 39W AND 42W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO
2N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 20W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO
THE NORTH OF 22N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT STILL IS INLAND AND IT REACHES
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS NOW. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 28N90W...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE MEXICO
GULF COAST NEAR 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
APALACHEE BAY BY FLORIDA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA...TO THE MEXICO COAST AT THE NORTHERN END OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE GULF WATERS WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N93W BEYOND 30N90W.

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE
OIL PLATFORM SITES. THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND TEXAS ARE COVERED BY
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA BETWEEN
BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A MIXTURE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTH OF BROOKSVILLE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE OIL PLATFORM SITES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 30N88W 25N92W 22N98W. GALE-FORCE NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST
OF 94W TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 9 TO 14 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 87W AND
90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 14N. THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH 14N IS
COVERED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW.
THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FLOWING TOWARD
THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-15N58W TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 15N58W
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT
19/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE IS 2.07 INCHES...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS BEEN PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N67W
16N76W 14N83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N67W 28N71W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR
22N81W...AND TO 16N82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 7N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG REMAINS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND
83W...IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER...NUMEROUS STRONG...
AT 19/0915 UTC.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N
TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. ALSO EXPECT
SOUTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST
OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W AND 24N45W...TO 20N50W...AND
TO 15N58W...TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO
28N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N36W 29N39W 28N42W
24N46W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION IS SPILLING OVER INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N59W 23N58W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO
30N67W 28N71W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 22N81W AND 16N82W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 77W.
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 26N38W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND
9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO
EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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