[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 16W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE W
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG N ALONG 88W.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE PLAIN STATES INTO N MEXICO
MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 11/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N92W AND CONTINUES S ALONG 26N96W THEN RACES S BEFORE
TURNING W INTO MEXICO N OF TAMPICO NEAR 24N98W. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA/TEXAS N OF 27N W OF 93W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM E AND S OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE
BASIN REACHING FROM NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE
THIS EVENING THEN FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO FRI
EVENING AS W PORTION OF FRONT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO DRIFT N. THE
FRONT TO THEN STALL FROM JUST S OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO UPPER NE
MEXICO LATE SAT DRIFTING N INTO NW GULF WATERS ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS
OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF A LINE FROM 17N98W ACROSS HAITI AND PORTIONS OF CUBA TO
21N81W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N E OF 66W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SAT AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N
W OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH E-SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N60W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS W TO THE SE CONUS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N23W ALONG 27N34W TO 26N43W
WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY TO 24N51 THEN DISSIPATES TO
24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N28W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION FRI NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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