[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
03N17W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 01N20W TO THE EQUATOR TO 29W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 02W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC REGIME CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC PROVIDES SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THE HIGHER END OF THOSE WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOTED GENERALLY W OF 90W AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS DUE TO AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. TRADES CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 15N
BETWEEN 67W-78W...AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS W OF
60W...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR
33N70W. THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS HIGH REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS 24N
AND REMAINS WEST OF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N51W TO 25N60W.
A STATIONARY FRONT THEN CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO THE SE
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 56W. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE
VICINITY OF BERMUDA AND STRETCHES ITS INFLUENCE FROM 45W TO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N36W. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING ANALYZED FROM
24N22W TO 30N24W BUT PROVIDES LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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