[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080506
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
23W. THE ENTIRE ITCZ IS S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF N OF
25N E OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE
FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF TO GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS GIVING
THE GULF FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SE RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN INCREASING
OVER THE W GULF LATE MON THROUGH WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENTER THE NW GULF LATE
WED NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TUXPAN MEXICO THU
MORNING AND FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN APPROACHING NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ALONG 83W FROM 11N-18N
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA
HAVE MOVED W TO ALONG THE COASTS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT EXPANDING TO
COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL SET UP EACH NIGHT
MON THROUGH THU THEN WEAKENING FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EXTENDING ACROSS NE
FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W-70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N55W ALONG 28N58W TO 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY N
OF HAITI NEAR 21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N58W TO 28N65W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N55W TO BEYOND 32N37W AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 18N40W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
21W/22W FROM 26N-31W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO
THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 31N38W. THE W ATLC
FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE N WHILE WEAKENING MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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