[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W TO 7N17W 4N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
27W...TO 1S30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 4W AND 6W...AND
FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 40W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N
BETWEEN 49W AND 51W ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N65W TO 26N67W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
TO 16N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N64W...TO 26N67W...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
NEAR 20N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N74W
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 18N80W...AND CURVING
IN ORDER TO COVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF
NICARAGUA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 31N68W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CONNECTS
THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER
TO 26N70W AND 23N75W IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN
240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N76W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO THE BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND PANAMA.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N91W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF...TO 25N92W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N81W ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...TO
26N86W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

FAIR SKIES COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO GALVESTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA.
KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE IN BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
REPORTS A LOW CLOUD CEILING AT 2200 FEET.
THE AIRPORTS THAT ARE IN THE TAMPA AREA
ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE RANGE
OF 3000 FEET TO 4000 FEET. FAIR SKIES COVER
THE REST OF THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE TEXAS COASTAL STATIONS...
THREE ICAO STATIONS KMZG...KBBF...AND KGVX ARE
REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 3200 FEET...
3300 FEET...AND AT 3600 FEET. ICAO STATIONS THAT
ARE REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING ARE KEHC AT
3700 FEET...KEIR AT 4100 FEET...KIPN AT 4400 FEET...
KVBS AT 3800 FEET...AND KVPN AT 3400 FEET.
ICAO STATION KHQI WAS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD
CEILING AT 3800 FEET AT 07/0955 UTC...AND
KGBK AT 07/0915 UTC REPORTED A LOW CLOUD
CEILING AT 3500 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST FOR
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING
8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE
MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...THROUGH
15N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 21N60W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N55W BEYOND 32N48W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG THE
BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7.5N
TO 9.5N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM
TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 16N76W 16N70W
12N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 63W AND 76W. A SECOND POINT OF INTEREST IS
A 48 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N
TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N21W TO 25N24W 20N30W AND 13N42W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N20W TO 30N22W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
30N22W TO 28N28W AND 27N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 26N23W 24N32W
AND 24N42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 29N44W...
TO 19N70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND AWAY FROM THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N65W...AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND TROUGHS. EXPECT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTS
TO 72W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 26N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 62W.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 17N35W TO 22N48W TO 21N60W
TO 16N60W TO 07N52W...EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 26N WITHIN 270 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 26N
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA WILL HAVE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE
EAST OF 59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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