[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC BY SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N13W TO
EQ18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W EQ34W
EQ40W TO 2S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3S TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE GULF IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT AT
05/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE W ATLC ALONG
29N78W 29N81W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA 27N82W 23N83W TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE APPROXIMATE AREA OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N-
26N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES COVER THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-95W. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-25 KT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED. WEST OF 90W N-NW WINDS OF 5-15 KT
KEEP DRIFTING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. OVER THE COURSE OF 24
HOURS...A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WEST ATLC WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT SURFACE
RIDGING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N WEST ATLC
ALL THE WAY S TO THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY A HIGH OVER
VENEZUELA. W OF THIS RIDGE...A NARROW MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE W ATLC AND WHICH
TAIL ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N84W TO
19N85W 17N86W. OBSERVATION OVER WESTERN CUBA W OF 80W ARE
REPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH POSSIBLY EXTENDS WITHIN 200 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 17N. OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA AS WELL AS IN JAMAICA ARE REPORTING HAZE WHICH IS AFFECTING
THE VISIBILITY IN THIS REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS AHEAD THE
FRONT AND W OF 78W ARE FROM THE SE RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. A
RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES TO GENERATE EASTERLY  TRADEWINDS
OF 15-20 KT OVER THIS REGION. AN AREA OF RAINSHOWERS IS BEING
OBSERVED WITHIN 130 NM FROM THE COASTLINE OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W ASSOCIATED TO THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. TWO
SCREAMING EAGLES WAVES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WHICH ARE PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE FIRST WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO 17N67W
15N67W 13N67W. THE SECOND WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 20N60W 17N61W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 12N61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
EXPERIENCES FAIR WEATHER ASSISTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
DISPLACING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC WITH ITS TAIL CROSSING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS. EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DISPLACED TO THE W ATLC WATERS
NEAR 29N78W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N76W TO
THE LOW THEN 29N79W 29N81W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE W
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS W
OF 71W N OF 22N. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 30N43W TO 28N48W 27N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER
BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH NEAR 31N28W. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT CROSSING FLORIDA WILL MOVE COMPLETELY OVER THE W ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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