[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N15W TO 1N17W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-21W
AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE E CONUS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT AT 05/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A
WEAK 1011 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE
ALONG 25N87W TO OVER THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
21N90W TO 18N93W. A SQUALL LINE WITHIN HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N86W TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
E OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN 24N-28N. A SURFACE TROUGH
PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N87W TO INLAND OVER THE E
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N BELIZE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA. DENSE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE N GULF N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO
96W. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN
LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT EASTWARD SAT AND SUN AS A LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE W GULF THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC ANCHORED
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N BELIZE AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 86W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SMALL BUT
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AT 05/0600 UTC ALONG 64W FROM 15N-18N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-66W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS
MORNING DISSIPATING OVER THROUGH THE DAY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE SUN AND EXPANDING TO COVER THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN LATE MON THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF
60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 75W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM NE OF
BERMUDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC
N OF 10N FROM 25W-60W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N46W TO 26N57W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
PRECEDING IT EXTENDING FROM 27N52W TO 25N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SMALL BUT
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE W
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 56W/57W FROM 14N-19N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N33W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
32N77W TO A LOW 1009 MB NEAR 30.5N77W TO 29N81W FRI MORNING AND
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT MORNING. A LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC LATE
SAT AND TRACK NE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD W OVER THE W ATLC LATE SUN THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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