[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N16W TO 1N23W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 6N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER
MEXICO AND THE FAR NW GULF WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE GULF AT 04/0900 UTC WITH A 1009
MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N86W AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N90W 25N93W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE
1009 MB LOW TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 28N82W. THE
SECOND LOW HAS DISSIPATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING FROM
24N92W EXTENDING S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM
E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD S OVER TEXAS INTO THE FAR W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG
BEING REPORTED OVER THE AREA NW OF LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA
TO MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS N FLORIDA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FRI AND EXIT THE REGION FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E SAT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW LATE SAT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. RELATIVE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-
84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN GIVING THE CARIBBEAN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE TRADE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN FRI THEN DISSIPATE SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC
N OF 28N W OF 72W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W
ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 42W-56W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N52W TO 25N62W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N39W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO
REGION FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FRI AND FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN SUN THEN DISSIPATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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