[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W AND EXTENDS TO 0N20W TO 0N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
0N24W TO 1N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-6N BETWEEN 8W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N OF TAMPICO
MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. FURTHER S...A 1007 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED E OF
TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N
BETWEEN 80W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W. THE E GULF HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THAT IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A
COLD FRONT TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF TRINIDAD. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 12N. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS. A
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER NE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
33N71W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W TO
24N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W.
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N14W TO 31N19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-
70W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS.
ALSO EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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