[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE NADINE IS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 39.2W AT 30/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 582 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING WNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 65 NM OF THE
CENTER OVER ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
35N-40N BETWEEN 36W-42W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 32N33W
ALONG 36N32W TO 39N36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
18N25W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S
CALE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N23W TO 12N29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N40W
TO 10N44W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W ALONG 15N22W THEN DIPS SHARPLY S TO THE 1011 MB
LOW NEAR 11N27W CONTINUING W TO 8N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
CONTINUING W ALONG 7N46W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
21W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 260 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 29W-37W AND WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 48W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
OKLAHOMA WHERE IT NARROWS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT CROSSES E TEXAS/
W LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A 999 MB LOW
AT 30/2100 UTC OVER E/CENTRAL LOUISIANA EXTENDING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE GULF NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 25N93W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN CONTINUING NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TRAILING THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF NEAR WHITE LAKE
LOUISIANA TO 27N96W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM E AND S OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA TO BEYOND
GEORGIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DENSE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY MON MORNING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MON NIGHT
THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO YUCATAN PENINSULA
TUE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WED AND THU. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS IN THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N84W TO 19N85W TO 17N85W. AN UPPER
LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 12N W OF 80W CENTERED IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER HAITI PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM OF LINE FROM 14N78W ALONG 18N77W TO OVER CUBA BEYOND 20N77W
INCLUDING E CUBA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA N OF 16N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-82W
AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...
AND HONDURAS E OF 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN/PANAMA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER
COSTA RICA ALONG 9N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-74W AND S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
BETWEEN 77W-81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR
SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AND WED NIGHT. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT
INCREASING TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
TO NW HAITI. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W EXTENDING AN AXIS NW OVER THE SE CONUS AND A SECOND RIDGE
AXIS TO BEYOND 32N63W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 73W-80W AND FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
62W-69W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 23N50W TO 16N54W IN THE TROPICS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 16N57W TO 22N58W AND FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 45W-48W.
HURRICANE NADINE REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGES WITH A
1022 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W AND A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING S FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES
TO 27N26W. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN AND
DRIFT W THROUGH TUE. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC LATE TUE NIGHT THEN REACH
FROM NEAR 32N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED AND BECOME STATIONARY
THROUGH THU. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA THU
AND FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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