[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE NADINE IS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 36.7W AT 29/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 517 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING NNW NEAR 13 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM N OF THE CENTER OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 32N-38N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N19W TO
11N23W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE TO A MORE
N/S ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WILL MOVE MORE
RAPIDLY WESTWARD. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND EXTENDS FROM 19N35W TO
10N39W W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 12N35W TO THE WAVE NEAR
16N37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N82W TO 13N82W
DRIFTING WESTWARD. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LOW FORCING
ANY ACTIVITY TO BE E OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W THEN DIPS SHARPLY S TO 12N18W CONTINUING W
ALONG 9N23W 10N30W TO 8N42W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS CONTINUING W
ALONG 9N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 37W-43W AND WITHIN 150 NM BOTH SIDES
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-55W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 21-33W AND
AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER HIGH OVER SW MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR TUXPAN TO THE NE
GULF COAST NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
E ACROSS THE S GULF COAST STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND
OVER E TEXAS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN BAFFIN
BAY AND MATAGORDA BAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERRIDING THE
FRONT WITH A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE N GULF IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 87W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING
STRONG SW AHEAD OF FRONT SHIFTING NW BEHIND FRONT. FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO LATE SUN AND FROM
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO YUCATAN LATE MON BECOMING STATIONARY FROM
TAMPA BAY TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE THEN DISSIPATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 80W CENTERED
NEAR 18N83W AND LIES ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN
78W-81W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO
ACROSS HAITI. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 15N77W TO 20N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-72W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG
9N80W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 10N AND PANAMA
BETWEEN 77W-80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR E AND FAR W CARIBBEAN
UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL DRIFT W OVER
NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WILL BUILD SW ACROSS CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC INCREASING
TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED THEN WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC N OF
30N THAN NARROWS SHARPLY AS IT ENTERS THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 30N73W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N71W TO 26N75W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 28N69W TO
BEYOND BERMUDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 65W-72W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HAITI ALONG 25N70W TO BEYOND
32N63W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
ABOVE AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 25N68W TO 21N68W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 62W. HURRICANE
NADINE IS WEDGED BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGES WITH A 1022 MB HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N54W AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDING S FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES TO 25N26W.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT W
THROUGH TUE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER SE CONUS WILL WEAKENED
AS IT ENTERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF AREA WED AND THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

PAW




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