[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 28/0900 UTC IS NEAR
29.0N 34.1W. NADINE IS ABOUT 647 NM/1195 KM TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 6 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
NADINE AS FAR AS 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. THIS WAVE CROSSES A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT SPANS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W 9N19W 10N35W 9N42W. THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
10W AND 18W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF AN UPPER LEVEL 32N47W 19N49W 11N56W
TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES ACROSS MEXICO...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLOW CROSSES 90W AND THEN IT MERGES INTO
THE FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE WEST OF 88W.

THE REMAINS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE MOVING
THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 80W
AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS COASTAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD
TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
15N57W...TOWARD HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 70W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO JAMAICA TO 13N73W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W.
A 78W/79W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...8N78W
AND THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8.5N79W AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN
76W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W 19N49W 11N56W.
ANOTHER PART OF THE TROUGH CURVES FROM 19N49W TOWARD HISPANIOLA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 44W AND 48W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N31W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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