[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 27/0300 UTC IS NEAR
28.9N 31.5W. NADINE IS ABOUT 590 NM/1095 KM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF NADINE AS FAR AS 110 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...60 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...80 NM IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN
30W AND 33W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
POSITION IS BASED ON STUDYING LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W...FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COASTAL COLOMBIA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO A 13N75W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY
ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W 9N20W 8N28W 9N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N35W TO
6N45W 7N49W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 6N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 9N12W 8N17W 5N23W
5N34W 8N41W 10N45W...ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO FROM 11N TO 21N
BETWEEN 20W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES ACROSS MEXICO...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLOW CROSSES 90W AND THEN IT MERGES INTO
THE FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE WEST OF 87W.

THE REMAINS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE MOVING
THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 82W AND
86W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE WEST OF 73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...COVERING THE
BAHAMAS FROM ANDROS ISLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING
FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
16N57W...TOWARD HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 70W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 59W AND 69W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO JAMAICA TO 13N73W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AND...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS...
COVERING THE AREA FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W...AND
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 14N83W...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATERS FROM 19N TO
CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 17N70W OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI NEAR
19N73W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN BELIZE AND IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N81W IN PANAMA BEYOND 10N85W IN
COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 24N50W 20N51W
18N54W...TO 16N57W AND WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N39W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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