[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 27/1500 UTC IS NEAR 28.7N
32.4W. NADINE IS ABOUT 621 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
NADINE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N32W TO 8N35W
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON LONG-TERM
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W TO
10N75W MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ON THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL AT 14N17W TO
13N24W TO 6N30W TO 6N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N38W TO 9N44W
TO 12N53W TO 15N57W TO 15N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 22W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
27W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 39W-43W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 33N86W. SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT E
TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ADVECTING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 87W-93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 93W-95W. MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW CUBA FROM
23N-24N BETWEEN 82W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ACTUALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W
OF 90W...AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING INTO LIGHTER
WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER N OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 86W-88W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
MONSOON TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF
THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N68W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 23N54W TO 18N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 55W-58W. T.S. NADINE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 31N10W TO 28N14W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS S OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN
43W-53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA








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