[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. PROBLEMS WITH SATELLITE DATA
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IS VALID THROUGH 1015 ONLY TO THE EAST OF 75W. NO IMAGERY IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS MOMENT TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AFTER 23/2100 UTC. SATELLITE DATA FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS
UNAVAILABLE FROM 23/2100 UTC UNTIL 24/0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR
31.4N 26.9W. NADINE IS ABOUT 420 NM/780 KM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 6 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE POSITION OF THE WAVE WAS CHANGED AND MOVED MORE EASTWARD
BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 14N20W 10N25W
AND 7N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N34W TO 6N39W AND 6N45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
30W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N73W...TO FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 27N86W
TO 28N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT ULTIMATELY WAS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. AT 23/1200 UTC HAS BEEN BREAKING UP SINCE THAT MOMENT.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND 90W. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT 24/0000 UTC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 27N TO
32N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG
28N74W TO 23N79W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. PROBLEMS WITH SATELLITE
DATA LIMIT THE RECEPTION OF IMAGES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF 70W AFTER 23/2130 UTC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W WITH THE TROUGHS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 15N65W. THIS IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT MOVED FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 4 DAYS OR SO. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER ALSO
PASSED BETWEEN BARBADOS AND SAINT VINCENT AROUND 21/1800 UTC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 68W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SATELLITE DATA ARE
AVAILABLE TO THE WEST OF 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT IS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM NADINE...TO 27N30W 22N36W 17N42W 11N43W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA OF THE
TROUGH AND IT INCLUDES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 21N63W...JUST OUTSIDE
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 TO
13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND EVENTUALLY
TROPICAL STORM NADINE IN 48 HOURS. A SECOND FEATURE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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