[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. PROBLEMS WITH SATELLITE DATA
HAVE OCCURRED AND IMAGERY FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS VALID THROUGH
0515 ONLY TO THE EAST OF 75W. NO IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
MOMENT TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER
23/2100 UTC. SATELLITE DATA FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
UNAVAILABLE FROM 23/2100 UTC UNTIL 24/0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR
31.0N 26.3W. NADINE IS ABOUT 420 NM/780 KM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 3 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM/370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 32N
TO 33N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W AND FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 23W AND
24W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 24N15W TO 18N20W 12N23W AND 11N27W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N27W TO 12N36W 13N41W AND 13N46W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 17W AND 30W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N76W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N85W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 27N85W TO
28N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT ULTIMATELY WAS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. AT 23/1200 UTC HAS BEEN BREAKING UP SINCE THAT MOMENT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST...
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 19N TO 25N.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 91W
AT 23/1515 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EASTWARD WITH TIME.
ONE ARE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 15N65W. THIS IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT MOVED FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 4 DAYS OR SO. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER ALSO
PASSED BETWEEN BARBADOS AND SAINT VINCENT AROUND 21/1800 UTC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
19N61W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
TO THE EAST OF 67W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE PANAMA COAST...BEYOND NORTHERN
COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT IS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM NADINE...TO 27N30W 19N33W 12N38W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA OF THE
TROUGH AND IT INCLUDES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N57W TO 19N61W...
JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12N TO 14N
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND EVENTUALLY
TROPICAL STORM NADINE IN 48 HOURS. A SECOND FEATURE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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