[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE AT 23/0600 UTC IS A 987 MB GALE LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT
30.6N 25.9W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
THE CENTER FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 23W-27W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 4 TO 9 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N52W
TO 9N53W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 50W-60W TO
INCLUDE OVER BARBADOS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 21N93W
THROUGH S MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 10N94W MOVING W 15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 90W-97W TO INCLUDE
MOST OF THE SW GULF.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT
18N16W TO 10N25W TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N34W TO
8N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM
26N81W TO 20N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N92W. MOST OF THE N GULF N OF 25N HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 85W-87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 75W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER HAITI FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 73W-75W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 62W S OF 15N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN  UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 15N63W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
POST-TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 73W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO 25N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH.  EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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