[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE AT 23/0000 UTC IS A 987 MB GALE LOW
CENTERED AT 30N26W NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 23W-27W.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 16N50W
TO 10N53W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 52W-60W TO INCLUDE OVER BARBADOS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 22N92W
THROUGH S MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 10N92W MOVING W 15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
INLAND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 89W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 88W-96W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SW
GULF.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 13N17W
TO 8N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N29W TO 8N40W TO THE COAST OF
GUYANA AT 8N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 13W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM
27N80W TO 21N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. MOST OF THE N GULF N OF 25N HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 11N
BETWEEN 80W-89W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-74W.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E
OF 62W S OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN  UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N63W ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
POST-TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
32N59W TO 28N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.  EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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