[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 19/1800 UTC IS NEAR
37.1N 32.2W. NADINE IS ABOUT 145 NM/270 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF FLORES IN THE AZORES. NADINE IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. THE PORTUGUESE
WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE AZORES. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 NM/445 KM FROM
THE CENTER. CORVO IN THE AZORES REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
42 MPH...68 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...93 KM/H...EARLIER
THIS MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE SWELLS MAY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN DECLINING GRADUALLY...AND IT IS BECOMING MORE AND
MORE REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N
TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W
AND 25W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N45W 15N50W 10N54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS NEAR 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI TO 17N73W TO 12N74W. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17N70W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W
AND FROM 19N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 78W COVERING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND COASTAL WATERS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SENEGAL
AND MAURITANIA NEAR 16N16W TO 10N21W 5N30W AND 4N33W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 4N33W TO 45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
25W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
IS ALONG 19N51W 14N56W 7N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N53W 12N55W 6N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. AND
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS PART COLD FROM COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N84W...AND PART STATIONARY FROM 27N84W TO 23N90W
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF 29N87W 25N91W 23N98W...AND FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 91W AND 94W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO A 1019 MB INLAND
MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W
FROM 22N IN CUBA TO PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W.
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IS REACHING EASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND NORTH CENTRAL COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE MONSOON TROUGH
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING
FROM A 32N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W...AND FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
30N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N51W
AND 22N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 17N53W 12N55W 6N59W.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF TRINIDAD...
HISPANIOLA...26N74W BEYOND 32N73W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22.5N TO 23.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF BERMUDA TO 26N70W...
TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 24N41W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 32.5N57W AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 36W/37W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N ALSO IN 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W...
AND FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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